Monday gives us football player props and two American League Division Series games. Our shortlist starts with Juwan Johnson receiving yards and Bijan Robinson rushing yards. In baseball, we lean toward the Yankees–Rays under and keep Chicago on a price-dependent watchlist.
These are editorial leans, not a model's proven edges. The price limits below are our cutoffs for this preview. A good idea at one price can be a pass at another.
Research checked: October 5, 2026, 10:00 a.m. ET. Prices below are quotes from linked sportsbook editorial pages, not a live odds feed. Odds, active players, and lineups can change. This dated preview stays online as an archive; it is not a current picks page for later dates.
Tonight's games and start times
| Game | Start | Focus |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox at Guardians | 5:00 p.m. | ALDS Game 2 |
| Yankees at Rays | 8:00 p.m. | ALDS Game 2 |
| Falcons at Saints | 8:15 p.m. | Monday Night Football |
Schedules: MLB postseason schedule and NFL Monday Night Football schedule.
The shortlist at a glance
| Pick | Published quote | Our limit |
|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson over 40.5 receiving yards | −115 · bet365 News | Same line, −115 or better |
| Bijan Robinson over 87.5 rushing yards | −120 · bet365 News | Same line, −120 or better |
| Yankees–Rays under 6.5 runs | −115 · BetMGM blog | Same total, −115 or better |
| White Sox moneyline — watchlist | +125 · BetMGM blog | Wait for +135 or better, and pitching confirmation |
Price sources: bet365's Falcons–Saints preview, BetMGM's Yankees–Rays preview, and BetMGM's White Sox–Guardians preview. Both BetMGM articles display a 9:18 a.m. publication time.
For negative odds, “better” means a smaller amount to risk for the same win: −110 is better than −115. For positive odds, +140 is better than +135. A different yardage line or total is a different bet.
Juwan Johnson over 40.5 receiving yards
Our first look: over 40.5 at −115 or better. Johnson needs at least 41 receiving yards. That gives us a way to back his involvement without needing him to score a touchdown.
The Saints' own tight end report lists 15 catches for 173 yards on 19 targets through three games. That is about 57.7 yards per game, although three games are a small sample.
Our read: the target count matters more than a highlight catch. Five receptions averaging a little over eight yards would clear this line. We want a normal receiving role, not a bet that needs one huge play.
What could beat it: short catches, fewer targets, or another tight end taking more of the work. Touchdowns do not rescue a yardage over unless the yards get there too. Pass if the line climbs to 45.5; we have not made the same case for that number.
Bijan Robinson over 87.5 rushing yards
Our second look: over 87.5 at −120 or better. This needs 88 rushing yards. Receiving yards do not count.
Atlanta's official report on Robinson's last game confirms 194 rushing yards against Green Bay. That shows the ceiling. It does not mean another 194-yard game is coming.
The injury report adds a reason to examine this matchup: New Orleans lists Kaden Elliss, Carl Granderson, and Anfernee Jennings out. Pete Werner and Noah Fant are questionable. Check the official final practice report and the later inactive list before betting.
Our read: defensive absences can help the rushing case, but carries still matter. Twenty carries at 4.4 yards each would reach 88. That is an example of the workload needed, not a prediction of his touches.
What could beat it: Atlanta falling behind and passing more, a reduced workload, or New Orleans stopping early-down runs. Pass if Robinson has an unexpected restriction or the line rises to 92.5.
Yankees–Rays under 6.5 runs
Our baseball lean: under 6.5 at −115 or better. Six combined runs or fewer wins; seven loses.
Cam Schlittler's road ERA was 1.16. Freddy Peralta's last-six-start ERA was 0.79. Aaron Judge is off the ALDS roster. Source: MLB's matchup guide.
ERA measures earned runs allowed per nine innings; lower is better. Our read: these numbers give us a reason to consider the under. We would rather look at the total than pay for a side simply because we recognize the team's name.
What could beat it: a home run with runners on, an early pitching exit, or extra innings. A low total leaves little room for mistakes. Check the starters and posted batting orders. If the number falls to 6.0, pass on this recommendation; the winning and push outcomes change.
White Sox–Guardians: a watchlist, not a forced bet
Watch Chicago at +135 or better, after confirming its pitching plan. The +125 article quote does not meet that limit.
Chicago may use an opener before Sean Burke; Cleveland lists Gavin Williams. Source: MLB's Game 2 guide.
Our read: do not price this as a routine matchup where each listed starter is expected to work deep into the game. An opener changes who faces the top of the order, and when the longer outing begins.
At +135, the break-even win rate is about 42.6%. At +125, it is 44.4%. Those numbers explain the price difference; they do not establish Chicago's actual chance. Without a price we like and a clear pitching plan, this stays a pass.
Before kickoff and first pitch
Check football inactives about 90 minutes before kickoff. For baseball, confirm starting pitchers and batting orders. If a key assumption changes, skip the pick instead of replacing it in a rush.
At −115, you need to win about 53.5% of the time to break even over many bets. At −120, it is about 54.5%. These are price calculations, not our confidence ratings.
Our preference is to evaluate these as singles. Putting both football overs into a same game parlay adds shared game risk and changes the price. Keep the night's total stake within a budget you already set, rather than adding more to chase an early loss.
Once the bets are placed, follow the actual legs
Johnson's receiving yards and Robinson's rushing yards are two different numbers to watch while baseball runs alongside them. BetSlip Live helps put supported slips and live stats in one view.
Import a supported slip from a screenshot, check the detected legs, and get back to watching. If you end up with one parlay leg left, our cash-out and hedge guide walks through the decision.